Surviving Sunday: Packers News, Notes and Links for the Football Deprived
Surviving Sundays with no Packers football.
Take a look at this NFL mock draft at Drafttek.com. There are three tight ends selected before a running back is chosen with the 50th overall pick.
Last year in the actual NFL draft there were two tight ends selected before the first running back was snatched off the board (Giovani Bernard at No. 37).
When I was growing up, running back was the glamour position. When we went out for recess to play football (this was back when you could still play tackle football at recess), everyone pretended to be Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith, not some tight end. Most teams wouldn’t dream of taking a tight end over a promising running back in the draft.
Times have changed. Running back is a de-valued position in today’s NFL. That’s not breaking news. But has the de-valuing gone too far?
The top two teams in the NFC last season, Seattle and San Francisco, based their offense around bruising running games. The Packers turned to rookie Eddie Lacy to keep their heads above water after Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone. Even with Tom Brady at quarterback, the Patriots pounded the ball on the ground early in the season, outrushing opponents in three of the first four games and starting 4-0.
Even on pass-happy Denver, with Peyton Manning at quarterback and a stable of exceptional receivers and tight ends, running back Knowshon Moreno finished with almost 1,600 total yards from scrimmage.
For a while, the NFL also appeared to be de-valuing the safety position, but that might be changing.
Only three safeties were picked in the first round from 2008-11. In the last two drafts, four safeties have gone in the first. In the opening days of NFL free agency, the top safeties on the board flew off the shelf for big money.
I think a lot of teams are emphasizing the safety position again because they see the importance of versatility in today’s game. Safeties are often best suited to handle multiple tasks: provide coverage over the top, match up against a tight end, play the slot, stop the run, drill whoever has the ball, occasionally blitz, etc. Take a look at the Seahawks and 49ers again — both were strong at safety.
While free agent safeties signed quickly and for big bucks, most of the productive running backs on the market are still out there, waiting for some team to show interest.
To be fair, there isn’t the running back equivalent of a Jarius Byrd still waiting to sign. The group of running back free agents wasn’t stacked with players who remind you of Adrian Peterson or Jamaal Charles. And maybe we’re seeing a resurgence of safeties because there are simply a lot of talented safeties coming out.
That said, I still wonder if we won’t see running backs make a comeback in the next three years. That’s usually how markets work. People de-value something so much that it eventually starts rising in value again after smart people invest at the market’s lowest point.
While most teams are off trying to plug holes here and there or find the next great pass rusher, they’re not paying attention to the running back position. “You can find running backs later in the draft,” most of these teams are probably saying.
They’re not wrong, but a good football player is a good football player. Passing up on a running back you think is really talented in favor of a more questionable talent at another position simply because “you can find a running back later in the draft” isn’t the way to go. As more and more teams appear to be doing this, eventually a few general managers will recognize it and seize on the value opportunity, taking running backs off the draft board earlier than the recent norm and starting a resurgence at the position similar to what we’re seeing at safety.
The position likely won’t be elevated to what it was during the days of Sanders and Smith, but I bet it makes a comeback.
Packers news, notes and links
- The Packers are the only team in the NFL who have yet to sign an unrestricted free agent (other than their own). Yes, GM Ted Thompson inked outsiders Peppers and Letroy Guion to deals, but they were released from their previous teams, not unrestricted free agents who hit the market after they played out their contracts. Why is this a big deal? Because by not signing any unrestricted free agents, Thompson isn’t hurting his chances at receiving a desirable compensatory draft pick for his own free agents that have departed (James Jones and Evan Dietrich-Smith).
- Speaking of compensatory draft picks, the Packers will get an extra third-round pick and another fifth-round pick to compensate for the loss of Greg Jennings and Erik Walden during last year’s free-agent period. So Thompson picked Jennings in the second round in 2006, got a ton of production out of him, let him walk, and received an extra third-round pick. Thompson signed Walden off the street in 2010, got some mileage out of him, let him walk, and ended up with a fifth-round choice. That’s what you call squeezing all the value you can out of a player.
- That said, I hope Thompson isn’t passing on unrestricted free agents he thinks could help the Packers just so he doesn’t damage his chances for a good compensatory pick.
- Warm up those vocal chords, we’ve got another year of chanting KUHHHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNN! Hopefully re-signing Kuhn doesn’t mean we’ll see more fullbcak dives…
- Bovada, a popular sports betting website (*cough* gambling online is illegal and is in no way endorsed or encouraged by ALLGBP.com *cough*) puts the over/under at nine for the number of sacks Julius Pepper will have this season with the Packers. That seems high. I’d pound the under (if doing so were legal). But that doesn’t mean Peppers will have a down year if he doesn’t reach nine sacks. I still think he’ll make an impact.
- CheeseheadTV has all the dates for the Packers offseason program.
- John Rehor wrote a throught-provoking piece about Ryan Braun receiving a standing ovation on Brewers’ opening day and how Braun’s reception differs from the scorn many Packers fans feel toward Brett Favre. I even tried to pick a fight with John in the comments section. I only venture into the comments section on posts that are really good, so you know John’s post on this topic is really good.
- Have you listened to this week’s podcasts over at the Packers Talk Radio Network yet? If not, what are you waiting for? Included in this week’s batch of pods is an interview with Packers safety Sean Richardson on Cheesehead Radio.
Non-Packers links and other nonsense
- If you’re looking for a quick and easy way to get up to speed on the NFL draft, listen to the Greg Cosell episodes of the Ross Tucker Football podcast.
- If you want to dig deeper into the draft, order the CheeseheadTV draft guide.
- Anja Niedringhaus, an Associated Press photographer, was killed in Afghanistan this week. She wrote this amazing story back in 2011.
- Mike Tanier over at Sports on Earth wrote the best piece I read all week about Desean Jackson.
- This is way off-topic, but if any readers are in college or know of someone in college that is interested in agriculture, have him or her check out the MCGA AGvocate scholarship/leadership program.
16 Comments On “Surviving Sunday: Packers News, Notes and Links for the Football Deprived”
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In the first three rounds of the draft, I would go ILB Mosley, FS Bucannon, TE Fiedorowicz, and C Richberg/Martin.
I would be thrilled with that draft, or if it was Shazier instead if Mosely. All guys that I love what I’m reading about them.
BPA or deal down (if there’s a partner to be had). Addressing need at that stage as well, would be awesome. The Packers aren’t so without holes that they can’t use the best talent on the board at most positions.
Since this is the potpourri article of the week, I have to say “Congrats Bucky” for an incredible season and a great run through the tournament. 5.7seconds from playing for an NCAA championship. A great group of guys and an ultra-entertaining season and tournament. One of my favorite Badger sporting events ever. The loss was tough but they should be really good next year as well. As Charles Barkley said in the post-game, “you should be proud of yourselves and the state of Wisconsin should be proud”. Count me as one who is! GoBucky!
That’s one of the things that makes ‘March Madness’, well, mad.
As they said, TJacks shot is an inch or two shallower and Bucky’s the one still dancing Monday night.
Since this is the potpourri article of the week, I have to say “Congrats Bucky” for an incredible season and a great run through the tournament. 5.7seconds from playing for an NCAA championship. A great group of guys and an ultra-entertaining season and tournament. One of my favorite Badger sporting events ever. The loss was tough but they should be really good next year as well. As Charles Barkley said in the post-game, “you should be proud of yourselves and the state of Wisconsin should be proud”. Count me as one who is! GoBucky!
You had me until you used Knowshawn as an example of how good backs are undervalued in today’s NFL. He was worthless before Manning and is doubtful to be productive after moving on from that offense. Time will tell, but I think hebis a prime example of how the system can make a pretty mundane player into a very productive one at the rb position.
It’s Sunday. I’m football-starved, and I have some time. I’m going to take issue with Drafttek’s draft for the Packers:
1st Round – If CJ Mosley is gone, I have no problem with Drafttek’s pick Ryan Shazier.
2nd Round – I have a big problem with this pick. They draft a Center?! I think we should draft a Center, but not until the late rounds. From the research I’ve done, we can get a really good Center in the 5th Round. Just because Bucannon is taken doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use this pick to get the best Safety left on the board. Ed Reynolds from Stanford is a really good Safety and some would argue he is even better than Bucannon. I say our need for a Safety is great and I believe we should use this pick for the best Safety available.
3rd Round – Drafttek picks ILB, Yarwin Smallwood. He is a really good player, but we have already picked Shazier who I would expect to be moved to ILB. I would say that we should use this pick to get a back-up for Raji. Raji has only a one-year contract and we don’t have a true nose tackle on the team now to back him up. With this pick there are several really good DTs that should available like Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson, and Kelcy Quarless.
3rd Round Second Pick – Here is where Drafttek picks a Safety, Ahmad Dixon. IMO, this pick should be used for the best TE, or WR, or CB. There are only four TEs in this draft who I think are better than the TEs we already have. I’m sure Ebron and Amaro will be gone but either Niklas or Fiedorowicz could be available. If either of them is available we should take them. If not, pick the best WR ( Donte Moncrief, Martavis Bryant) or CB (Marcus Roberson, Louchiez Purifoy) and with the 4th Round pick take either the WR or CB not taken in the 3rd Round.
5th Round – Pick the best C ( Martin, Stork, Linsley) and maybe use the second pick to take a WR who is also a return specialist ( John Brown or Allen Hurns) We certainly need one!
Rounds 6 & 7 – Take players for special teams.
Now that I got that out of my system, I don’t feel quite as football-starved. Thanks!
Agree. No problem w/ Shazier in the 1st. Good pick and since he put on about 10 lbs I like him as much as Mosley at ILB.
2nd rd. In this mock I would have gone w/ WR and my guy is Donte Moncrief.
3rd rd. My 1st choice would have been Terrence Brooks S FL. St. Reminds a lot of Nick Collins. Exceptional closing speed, aggressive in run support. Needs to work on his hands, drops too many INT’s and control his aggression a bit, but he’s a very good Safety prospect.
I don’t think Rehor is right about a double standard. I agree with your comments and PackersNation’s comments on that article. I’m ready to forgive and retire, but I will never look at Favre the same. I will never look at Braun the same, either, but Favre’s crime is betrayal and that’s treason is a capital offense.
I agree Scheny, the badgers had a great season. Very eentertaining. My heart sank when Kentucky hit that 3 pointer with 5 seconds left, but i held out hope that we were heading to the championship game, oh well.
I can’t see the argument of RB’s being too devalued. Look at the most recent RB’s taken in the 1st round. Richardson, Ingram, Martin, Wilson, Spiller, Matthews, Best, Brown and Moreno all have done very little to speak of in the NFL. Only one that has lived up to a 1st rd pick are Martin. A case might be made for Spiller, but even that’s hedging. Matthews has be pretty good not 1st rd worthy IMO.
Now look at the 2nd rd RB. LeSean McCoy, Rice, CJ2K, Tate (now a starter), Geo Bernard and Lacy all have been been more impressive than the 1st rd RB taken. The hit rate on 2nd rd RB is much higher than the 1st rd. A few 2nd rd guys haven’t gotten the chance to really prove themselves either. Gerhart, Ball, Bell, Micheal will be getting their chances very soon if they haven’t yet.
I just don’t see the value of a RB in the 1st. Production-wise, cost efficiency and performance, not too mention the very short shelf life of a RB, doesn’t make it worth a 1st rd pick anymore.
Chicago Bears signed Center Brian de la Puente, age 29, to a 1 year contract at the veteran minimum with a $65,000 signing bonus and $100,000 base salary guarantee per the Chicago Tribune and ESPN blog. Possibly a qualifying contract wherein the cap hit is less than the amount de la Puente receives (tip off is the $65,000 signing bonus, the most allowed under the CBA for a qualifying contract.
Puente was the starting center for New Orleans. He is above average in pass protection and downright bad at run blocking. Reports indicate that he has accepted being a back up center for Garza, the bears current center, who himself is on a 1 year contract for $1.5 million. It may be that de la Puente hopes to be the starter after Garza retires in 2015.
At the risk of only $165K, GB can’t have a veteran center on the roster? Well, maybe de la Puente liked the situation in Chicago better, and he played for some of the Bears’ coaches in the past. Still….. just for insurance.
An ILB named “Smallwood”? please no, I don’t care how good he is!
Imagine how much crap AJ would take if his last name were “Dove.” He’d of been cut by now…
An ILB named “Smallwood”? please no, I don’t care how good he is!
Imagine how much crap AJ would take if his last name were “Dove.” He’d of been cut by now…
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